4 min read

Celebrating the Super Bowl With Innoslate

Celebrating the Super Bowl With Innoslate

This playful project in Innoslate illustrates potential in-game scenarios and their outcomes, emphasizing the role of probability and choice on the overall success of a team. This activity does not support or encourage sports gambling and is only intended to be a fun tool to use in anticipation of Super Bowl LVII.


What is The Super Bowl LVIII Interactive Game Events Simulator?

SPEC Innovations, a team of skilled systems engineers, has crafted an ingenious project in Innoslate called The Super Bowl LVIII Interactive Game Events Simulator. This captivating and non-commercial mathematical endeavor is tailor-made for football enthusiasts who wish to delve into the strategic intricacies of American football.

Focusing on the highly anticipated clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, this innovative simulator immerses users in the game's crucial moments through an action diagram that dynamically branches based on the real odds and probabilities of specific events.

To determine the odds, an advanced implied odds calculator was utilized, along with data from various sources, ensuring accuracy and reliability. We then used Innoslate, a model-based systems engineering software tool, for the process modeling and simulation.

Innoslate's, process modeling diagram, the Action Diagram was used to create the diagram's structure and branches, which were subsequently simulated using Innoslate's powerful Discrete Event Simulation capabilities. As the simulation progresses through the diagram, it accurately calculates the probability of each selected outcome.

Super Bowl Action Diagram

 


Super Bowl LVIII Evaluation

In this year's Super Bowl, we will witness the extraordinary talents of football stars like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle. These players possess exceptional abilities that go beyond their positions, capable of single-handedly shifting the momentum of a game at any given moment.
 
Mahomes is widely recognized for his exceptional arm strength and precision, enabling him to deliver remarkable throws that only a few quarterbacks can achieve.

Kelce possesses the remarkable ability to navigate open spaces and his dependability as a tight end makes him a preferred target in crucial third-down situations.

McCaffrey's remarkable versatility as both a runner and receiver from the backfield poses a formidable dual threat to opposing defenses, establishing him as a pivotal player in offensive strategies.

By analyzing the likelihood of specific events taking place, such as Mahomes throwing for a specific yardage or Kelce making a certain number of receptions to contribute to his overall receiving yards, we gain valuable insights into the potential game scenarios that could unfold.

This evaluation plays a crucial role in the Super Bowl LVIII Interactive Game Events Simulator, which aims to anticipate and simulate a variety of outcomes based on real-world data and probabilities.
The list below are some of the variables that Innoslate was able to simulate:

  • Mahomes to throw more than 300 yards?
  • Kelce to catch for more than 80 yards?
  • Pacheco to rush for more than 100 yards?
  • Purdy to throw more than 300 yards?
  • McCaffrey to have more than 130 receiving and rushing yards combined?
  • Kittle to have more than 70 receiving yards?
  • Chiefs to score more than 24 points?
  • 49ers to score more than 25 points?


Simulating MBSE Processes

Now, let's take a look at a few examples of the outcomes we discovered during our simulation of the action diagrams we designed.

The Chiefs

For the first example, we focused on the Kansas City Chiefs and assessed the likelihood of Mahomes throwing for more than 300 yards.


Screenshot 2024-02-08 141057

The 49ers

In this next example, we chose the 49ers and evaluated the probability of McCaffrey to have more than 130 receiving and rushing yards combined:


Screenshot 2024-02-08 141149

Outcome Details

The list of all the outcomes we gained from our analysis in the Action Diagrams are:

  • Mahomes to throw more than 300 yards? 31.25%
  • Kelce to catch for more than 80 yards? 46.30%
  • Pacheco to rush for more than 100 yards? 23.82%
  • Purdy to throw more than 300 yards? 23.81%
  • McCaffrey to have more than 130 receiving and rushing yards combined? 52.38%
  • Kittle to have more than 70 receiving yards? 32.26%
  • Chiefs to score more than 24 points? 51.92%
  • 49ers to score more than 25 points? 50.00%

Script Explanation

The scripting capability on Innoslate behavioral process models (SysML activity diagram or LML action diagram) allows engineers to combine our modeling strengths with our robust JavaScript coding APIs. The following script allows the simulator to walk through enumerations, state the variables, and assign enumeration choices to the following branches.

Script Guide


Simulator Dashboard Settings

Innoslate's Discrete Event and Monte Carlo Simulator Dashboards contain various features for costing, scheduling, resource management and analysis, etc. In order to optimize the viewing experience and gain valuable insights into the simulated outcomes, it is essential to customize the simulator dashboard settings.

Simulator Dashboard Setting

After selecting the highlighted features above ("Action Trace 3D" or "Console") for use in the simulator, users can initiate the simulation and witness the exciting outcomes unfold in the Console and Action Trace 3D.

Lessons Learned from the Super Bowl LVIII Interactive Game Events Simulator

The Super Bowl LVIII Interactive Game Events Simulator provides football enthusiasts with an exceptional and captivating opportunity to delve into the world of strategic decision-making and the unpredictable outcomes of American football. This innovative project showcases how model-based systems engineering can be leveraged to explore probability and choice, offering a fun and exciting way to simulate potential scenarios, including the highly anticipated clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.

The innovative scripting capabilities of Innoslate's Action Diagrams, combined with its robust JavaScript coding APIs, empower engineers to navigate through enumerations, state variables, and assign choices to various branches. This exceptional scripting functionality enhances the simulator's modeling strengths, making it an all-encompassing tool for systems engineers.

Furthermore, the simulator's dynamic dashboard settings, which include discrete event and Monte Carlo simulation capabilities, offer users a wide range of features for cost analysis, scheduling, resource management, and comprehensive data analysis. Through customizing the dashboard settings, users can optimize their viewing experience and gain valuable insights into the simulated outcomes.

To conclude, the Super Bowl LVIII Interactive Game Events Simulator exemplifies the fusion of cutting-edge technology, sports analytics, and fan engagement. As we eagerly anticipate the Super Bowl showdown, this simulator adds an extra layer of excitement and anticipation to the game.

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